The afternoon’s UK Independent reports exclusively that Iran is now sending 4,000 troops to Syria to support Bashar al Assad. Al Jazeera reports that Egypt has cut diplomatic ties and is demanding a “no fly” zone. Assad has received crucial backing from Russia and Iran and China, and with his victory in al Qusayr and support from Hezbollah is now going for the jugular.
Lebanon is being dragged even further into the war but the Sunnis have no leadership.
In the meantime the United States has promised small arms and the U.K. and France are pleading poverty.
What we are about to see is the triumph of authoritarianism. The West is weak and dissolute while the axis of Russia, China, Iran, and even Venezuela has grown more powerful. This is not just about Sunni – Shia, but about geopolitics writ large. The same alliance that challenged the Bush Administration is in place to put the Middle East oil patch in “check”.
Turkey is self absorbed. Israel is threatened and while Hamas has been kicked to the curb for the time being by Iran, the Sunni Ummah will be outraged and will not sit still. And most of our government is now on summer hours and being run by rank amateurs.
Despite the promising election results in Iran this morning nothing has changed. The country is run by the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard, Assad’s most important supporters. Iranian officers are rumored to have replaced many of the senior defectors from the Assad regime.
Unless there is a decisive punch thrown soon on behalf of the rebels they will have lost. Hezbollah will have been strengthened. Assad will be completely beholden to Iran and Russia, and Iran will have extended its naked power to the Mediterranean.
With the threat to accelerate to building 30 bombs per month, the mullahs in Qom will feel unassailable, much like Jimmy Cagney in Public Enemy. “Look Imam! I’m on top of the world!” And this time we are living with a geopolitical power structure that lets the bad guys win.